Time to Pick a Superbowl Champion

Entering December, the NFL has hit the home stretch. By now, all of the pretenders for the Super Bowl Championship have been identified and discarded for the season. Meanwhile, the focus is shifting to the true contenders.

Early in December, sports bettors still have a chance to claim decent betting odds if they are interested in laying some money down and selecting an NFL team or two to win it all. Some bettors will stick with their favorite teams if said teams are still in the mix. Still, other bettors will put on their handicapping hats and use skill to get to the presumed final answer. Either way, tis the season to be getting down Super Bowl bets before the odds start shortening across the board.

2025 Super Bowl LIX

This year's Super Bowl LIX will be held on February 9, 2025, at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Gametime is scheduled to be approximately 6:30 p.m. EST. This marks the first time in U.S. sports history that a top-rated U.S. sports betting operator will have their name attached to a major sports event.

Based on tradition, the game will be played between the AFC champions and NFC champions to be determined in January 2025. When the Super Bowl arrives, sports bettors will have the right and privilege of choosing between 500+ proposition bets, which makes the Super Bowl the premier sports betting event in the world.

A Look at the Contenders

At this point, contenders will be represented by teams that have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. From that group, there will be contenders that have stronger resumes than others. That strength will be indicated by the odds, which are determined by the most astute oddsmakers in the world. Let's take a look at the contenders in each conference, listed from the lowest odds to the highest odds.

Note: The first set of odds (from Caesars) will be from the Super Bowl champion market while the second set (from FanDuel) will be from the conference championship market:

AFC:

Kansas City Chiefs - +480 - +220

Buffalo Bills - +600 - +290

Baltimore Ravens - +800 - +370

Pittsburgh Steelers - +2500 - +1200

San Diego Chargers - +2500 - +1300

Houston Texans - +3000 - +1000

Denver Broncos - +3000 - +2500

Miami Dolphins - +7500 - +3300

NFC:

Detroit Lions - +300 - +130

Philadelphia Eagles - +625 - +290

Minnesota Vikings - +1600 - +750

Green Bay Packers - +1600 - +750

Atlanta Falcons - +6500 - +2800

San Francisco - +6500 - +2800

Seattle Seahawks - +6500 - +2800

Washington Commanders - +6500 - +3500

Handicapping Analysis

Surely, astute sports betting handicappers are already hard at work, trying to hone in on their selections. It's the recreational bettors who could use a little bit of help. With that in mind, here is some analysis of a few teams that are intriguing in terms of winning Super Bowl LIX. If they have a realistic shot at the Super Bowl trophy, it stands to reason they would also have a realistic shot at their respective conference titles.

Detroit Lions: With a little more than a month remaining in the NFL regular season, the Detroit Lions seemingly stand out above the rest of the league. They made great strides in 2023 and have clearly moved the bar a little higher in 2024.

It's a little tough to take +300 to win the Super Bowl and +130 to win the NFC Conference title at this point in the season. That's especially true with games remaining against top contenders like the Packers, Bills, and Vikings. However, the Lions seem to have all the pieces in place to plow through the playoffs. They rank #2 in scoring defense at 16.6 PPG, backed by a prolific offense that ranks #7 in the NFL for scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. The team's balanced offensive attack is daunting.

If someone is interested in betting on the Lions to win the Super Bowl, now is the time at +300. If they get through the last 6 games with a record of 5-1, those odds will shrink to somewhere around +180.

Recommendation: Bet the +300

Kansas City Chiefs: After winning 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls, the Chiefs still look no worse for wear. This is a legitimate dynasty team for the ages. However, and that's a big however, all may not be okay in Kansas City.

The Chiefs will always go as far as future Hall of Fame QB Patrick Mahomes will take them. In past Super Bowl championship years, the Chiefs would dominate opponents with a fantastic offense and a better-than-average defense. This year, the feel is quite different.

They started off the season by losing all three (3) preseason games. That dominance is fading. With a great record of 10-1, it's noteworthy that only three (3) games have been won by a TD or more. That includes a loss to Buffalo, the best team they have played to date. While the remaining 6-game schedule is light on competition, one has to question how well this team will do against the best of the best in the playoffs.

Recommendation: Hard pass on the +400.

Baltimore Ravens: When trying to handicap playoff teams, you can't afford to look past teams that have the best players. The best player in the NFL this year is QB Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. That puts them on the map as a team to fear. His stats are otherworldly: 215-321 for 2,876 yards and 25 TD passes with only 3 INTs. His QB rating is an outstanding 117.3. OH, he can run the ball as well, raking up 584 yards and another 2 TDs. Pair that with RB Derrick Henry, the NFL's second-leading rusher (1,185 yards & 13 TDs), this offense is downright scary. At +800 to win the Super Bowl and +370 to win the AFC conference title, there is a ton of betting value tied to the Ravens.

Recommendation: Pull the trigger!

Denver Broncos: Scouring the board, there is one long shot that seems worthy of attention. Of the 6 QBs that were taken early in the 1st round of the 2024 NFL draft, Bo Nix from Oregon was the lowest rated. As rookie QBs will do, he struggled the first 6 weeks, throwing a mere 5 TD passes with the same number of interceptions and a QB rating in the mid-80s. Over the last 5 weeks, he has graduated to a fine-looking veteran QB. During that span, he has thrown for 11 TDs against only 1 INT and a QB rating in the 110.0 range. Even better, Denver is winning football games.

The Broncos have a long way to go to become legit Super Bowl contenders but on the right day and in the right circumstances, they should not be overlooked. At odds of +3000, there might be some hidden value here.

Recommendation: Recreational sports bettors might want to throw a few dollars in this direction.

Conclusion: The Super Bowl is the #1 sports event in the world. It always draws wagering dollars that far exceed anything that's wagered on any other event in any other sport. If you want to pick up a bet or two on a Super Bowl futures market, now is the time to push the trigger. With an eye on making a net profit, you might want to consider betting on more than one team. A little extra coverage throughout the playoffs will make the action a little more interesting.